Find out the chance of picking a liar, if one of your subjects is selected at random.
P(did lie)=51/98 P(did lie)=0.52
If a random subject was chosen, determine the probability of them getting a polygraph positive result and a subject that did not lie.
P (did not lie, obtained positive results from a polygraph) = 32/98
P (did not lie, obtained positive results from a polygraph) = 0.33
Find out the likelihood of picking someone who has lied, or who received a result from a polygraph that indicates they are not lying.
P(did lie/had a polygraph that showed they weren’t lying) = (51/98 + (41/98).
P (lied or showed a polygraph that they didn’t lie) = 0.94
Find out the probability that each subject will lie, if you randomly select two subjects without replacing them.
P(both lied) equals (51/98) * (50/97).
P(both lied) equals 0.27
To estimate probability of choosing randomly a subject lying but with a polygraph showing otherwise, use subjective probability
15.98
P(didn’t lie; the polygraph indicates that someone lied) = 0.
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