Find out the chance of picking a liar, if one of your subjects is selected at random.

P(did lie)=51/98 P(did lie)=0.52

If a random subject was chosen, determine the probability of them getting a polygraph positive result and a subject that did not lie.

P (did not lie, obtained positive results from a polygraph) = 32/98

P (did not lie, obtained positive results from a polygraph) = 0.33

Find out the likelihood of picking someone who has lied, or who received a result from a polygraph that indicates they are not lying.

P(did lie/had a polygraph that showed they weren’t lying) = (51/98 + (41/98).

P (lied or showed a polygraph that they didn’t lie) = 0.94

Find out the probability that each subject will lie, if you randomly select two subjects without replacing them.

P(both lied) equals (51/98) * (50/97).

P(both lied) equals 0.27

To estimate probability of choosing randomly a subject lying but with a polygraph showing otherwise, use subjective probability

15.98

P(didn’t lie; the polygraph indicates that someone lied) = 0.